Are you a die-hard Barça fanatic with a passion for placing bets? Imagine embarking on a five-season journey, from 2017/18 to 2021/22, where you put your faith in FC Barcelona and bet solely on them. But that's not all, we'll also take a retrospective look from the 2012/13 La Liga season onwards to give a more in-depth analysis of all teams.
We'll use 1 unit as our standard bet size on each match and take the odds from Pinnacle Sportsbook's closing line, the final set of odds offered before the game begins. Pinnacle's odds are highly efficient and considered a gold standard in estimating true probabilities.
Are you ready to see if your love for Barça can pay off in the world of gambling?
A look at the charts
From 2017/18 to 2021/22
Just imagine, if you were to place $10 bets on FC Barcelona for an entire season, that's a total of 38 matches and a stake of $380. Now, multiply that by five seasons, and you're looking at a total investment of $1,900 in 190 single bets. As the final whistle blows, the reality hits hard - a loss of $84 (-8.4 units) and a yield of -4.4%.
But why did things go so wrong for Blaugrana? It's worth noting that this particular season, 2021/22, marked the first without the iconic Lionel Messi wearing the Barça jersey. However, the team's decline in performance could be traced back to the last quarter of the 2019/20 season, a little over halfway through the five-season timeline. Meanwhile, bitter rivals Real Madrid saw a comeback in their performance, eventually leading to their title win that same season.
The results over a five-season period uncover some intriguing findings. To begin with, the chart is overwhelmingly dominated by the color red, with 20 out of 28 teams finishing with a loss. Of those 8 teams that managed to make a profit, only 3 teams played in La Liga for the entire 190-game duration.
It's worth mentioning the impressive performance of Deportivo Alavés, Levante and Real Betis during this five-season period, achieving positive yield and being among the few teams that made a profit. This raises the question, would you have considered them as a better choice for a whole season, instead of betting solely on FC Barcelona? Does this make you rethink your approach in betting on your favorite teams?
So, let's dive in and take a closer look.
A season-by-season breakdown
From 2012/13 to 2021/22
A heatmap can be an efficient tool to quickly identify teams that performed consistently well or poorly throughout the ten seasons in context.
As we delve deeper into the data, it becomes clear that the results fluctuate wildly from season to season. Take Real Betis for example, they had a dream season in 2012/13 where they raked in a profit of 17.8 units, but the next season was a nightmare. They ended up making a loss of -22.3 units and were also relegated to a lower league. It just goes to show that in the world of football betting, one season's success does not guarantee the next.
The underdogs
The world of football betting is filled with surprises and upsets. To stay with Real Betis, they pulled off a shock victory against mighty Real Madrid at the start of the 2017/18 season with odds of 31, which explains the significant spike seen in the first table at the beginning of the chart.
Another underdog that made a splash is Deportivo Alavés. During the 2016/17 season, they recorded the highest profit of 43.7 units, largely due to their sensational victory on the 3rd matchday, when they won away against powerhouse FC Barcelona at odds of 32.
If we had to pick one team from among the underdogs, then Leganes would have the best chances. They have consistently outperformed expectations, beating the top 3 teams several times across the timeframe, with odds as high as 6 and above. Despite the fact that they were relegated twice, it's clear that Leganes has been a formidable team among the underdogs.
This serves as a reminder that upsets can happen in the world of football and should not be overlooked. However, while betting on the underdogs may seem like a tempting opportunity, it is important to consider the long-term trends and dominance of the top teams before placing your bets.
The favorites
For the past decade(s), the La Liga title race has been dominated by the top three teams - FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atletico Madrid. Using them as a betting portfolio would have resulted in a minuscule profit of 0.1 units over 1,140 bets, which suggests that the market is fairly accurate. Additionally, none of the three teams recorded a double-digit loss over the 30 seasons combined, reflecting a low volatility in their performance.
But, there's a catch. This is an indication of the "favourite-longshot bias" in the betting market, where the top teams are heavily favored and the underdogs are overlooked. This can lead to a distortion of the odds and make it difficult for the underdogs to generate a profit, despite their potential performance. However, it's worth noting that the "top 3 portfolio" profits (17.9 units; 3.1% yield) were made in the first 5 seasons and losses (-17.8 units; -3.1% yield) in the following 5 seasons of the observation period. This suggests that the bias may have decreased over time, making it worth considering betting on the underdogs. Or maybe there is no more bias (see further reading)?
The long-term perspective
When it comes to betting on FC Barcelona or any other team from La Liga for an entire season, it's a gamble. Sure, there may be moments of short-term success, but in the long-term, the odds aren't in your favor.
When we take a look at all teams in La Liga, the numbers don't lie - a loss of -248.3 units (-3.3% yield) over 7,600 bets. This is thanks to the bookmaker margin, that sneaky built-in advantage that the bookmakers have in setting the odds, allowing them to make a profit regardless of the outcome. This is why sports betting, like roulette, has a negative expected value and why, in the medium and long-term, 98% of sports bettors lose money.
We believe that to be truly successful at betting, you need to look beyond the statistics that bookmakers provide. That's why we've developed a suite of tools that go above and beyond what's available to the average bettor. At your fingertips, you'll have access to insights and information that can help you stay ahead of the game and find value that others may miss.
If you want to learn more about the "favourite-longshot bias" and how bookmakers use it to adjust risk, be sure to read on at the Pinnacle betting resources.
Jonathon Brycki
Dan Abrams